I disagree with the escalation (Ground Invasion) take. Simplifying why considerably: Trump has made the decision to TACO, and he will do everything in his power to secure a peace proposal. He has already accepted the defeat (Strategic Petrodollar, Gulf Alliance), Iran knows this is their only chance to secure a deal that saves their regime.
The leverage they have over the Strait of Hormuz will probably be rendered obsolete in five to ten years. The Gulf states have realized they have given Iran too much leverage over their energy exports, and they will build pipelines and alternative routes for their gas and oil.
So the only leverage Iran has now will stop working in five years , this is why they will continue to push hard on the US in order to secure a permanent deal while they still can.
I think we are probably getting a peace deal and it is going to be heavily in Iran's favor. The idea of escalation has weakened significantly. The 48h ultimatum was just a last ditch effort before entering negotiations.
The pipeline diversification point is sharp — UAE's Fujairah terminal already bypasses Hormuz for ~40% of their crude. But "heavily in Iran's favor" assumes Tehran negotiates as a unified actor. The IRGC's economic empire depends on sanctions arbitrage; a deal that lifts sanctions threatens their revenue model. Iran's leverage may be expiring, but the faction that controls that leverage has every incentive to sabotage the deal that trades it away.
Great scenario analysis!
Thank you for the post! Always appreciate deep insights
Great synthesis! thanks
Fantastic read. Thanks for sharing!
I disagree with the escalation (Ground Invasion) take. Simplifying why considerably: Trump has made the decision to TACO, and he will do everything in his power to secure a peace proposal. He has already accepted the defeat (Strategic Petrodollar, Gulf Alliance), Iran knows this is their only chance to secure a deal that saves their regime.
The leverage they have over the Strait of Hormuz will probably be rendered obsolete in five to ten years. The Gulf states have realized they have given Iran too much leverage over their energy exports, and they will build pipelines and alternative routes for their gas and oil.
So the only leverage Iran has now will stop working in five years , this is why they will continue to push hard on the US in order to secure a permanent deal while they still can.
I think we are probably getting a peace deal and it is going to be heavily in Iran's favor. The idea of escalation has weakened significantly. The 48h ultimatum was just a last ditch effort before entering negotiations.
The pipeline diversification point is sharp — UAE's Fujairah terminal already bypasses Hormuz for ~40% of their crude. But "heavily in Iran's favor" assumes Tehran negotiates as a unified actor. The IRGC's economic empire depends on sanctions arbitrage; a deal that lifts sanctions threatens their revenue model. Iran's leverage may be expiring, but the faction that controls that leverage has every incentive to sabotage the deal that trades it away.