1. What Changed This Week
Korea: the retest came, and we took it
Last week we said we would add nothing until the price was attractive again. It took three sessions. 000660 slid back into the ₩1.42M zone (≈$1,000) — right on top of the second-bottom area from our W-bottom work — and we flagged it on X in real time. Today it printed ₩1,634,000 intraday (≈$1,150) and closed at ₩1,593,000 (+5.9%), with KOSPI back in a technical bull market, up 20% from the July low.
The rebound does not change the regime call: wide-range chop, not a new trend. The foreigners who round-tripped this tape two weeks ago have not turned into long-term holders, and the leveraged-ETF drag we wrote about last week is still grinding in the background.
So we treat it as a range: ≈$1,150 (₩1.63M) is the first profit-taking level. The next target is ₩1.85M (≈$1,300).
Gold stretches, bitcoin waits
Gold did in one week what we expected over a quarter. The strongest week since January: +7.8%, a print at $4,467, now $4,388. The driver is exactly the short-dollar thesis — July payrolls fell 23,000, CPI came in tame, and the September hike trade is dying on the vine.
Short term, this is stretched. We expect a pullback, and we want one. That is not a threat to the position: ACCUMULATE means tranches, and a pullback is where the next tranche goes, not where the thesis breaks.
Bitcoin is the mirror image: same macro tailwind, no response. Around $63,600, below the key moving averages, still boxed between $62.5K support and the $65–70K wall. But the bottom structure that started at $57,700 in July keeps building, box by box. In the scorecard below, we will explain when, and at what price, we buy the next round.
SpaceX: the signal fired before the squeeze
On August 6 we asked on X: “Is it time to buy SpaceX?”
That was lockup day. 911.5 million insider shares came free — more than doubling the float — with roughly 35% of the float sold short and the consensus trade positioned for a crash. The stock closed up 6% instead. The next day it ran +16%, the biggest two-day add being $327 billion of market value. On Monday it reclaimed its $135 IPO price, and it last closed near $146. From where we flagged it (~$110), that is roughly +35% in a week.
A feared supply event, with everyone already leaning short, is how bad news gets exhausted — the unlock was the flush, not the beginning. Our system flagged the setup within 24 hours of the turn, off the technicals and the positioning window.
What now: the unlock schedule is not done. Another 319 million shares come free on August 20, then roughly 700 million each in September and October. That supply is real. From here, everything up to $160 is a profit-taking zone, not a chase zone.
A note for readers: going forward we will sync our X signals into substack. The exclusive work stays here is that not everything in Substack makes it to X.