Weekly Signal Playbook · Mar 26 — The Next Phase

Updated Mar 26. No exit. Hormuz closed. Escalation ahead.

PAID SUBSCRIBER CONTENT — This is the full Weekly Signal Playbook with triggers, sizing, and invalidation.

Updated Mar 26. No exit. Hormuz closed. Escalation ahead.

What we called. What happened.

• War duration: called 3+ months. Now week four, still no off-ramp.

• Mar 7: called $150–200 Brent target (Goldman at $76). Trump admin now stress-testing $200.

• Called insurance collapse as Hormuz closure mechanism.

• Three paths mapped. Trump retreated Mar 24. Iran denied talks. Protracted war confirmed.

• Flagged Japan/Korea most exposed. MOF now exploring crude futures intervention — unprecedented.

• Called dollar system cracking. Major banks publishing structural dollar-risk research first time this cycle.

The next phase will be worse.

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Regime Assessment

🔴 Current Regime: RISK-OFF · Escalation Phase

Mar 17 thesis → credibility collapse. Ultimatum → extension → Iran denial. All stress indicators firing — rates ↑, oil ↑, DXY ~100 — structurally worse than 2022 (SPR depleted, $39T debt, Hormuz closed).

5-day pause expires Saturday. Both paths bearish.

Regime Shift Probability Table — Updated Mar 26:

Key changes:

• Bull case halved (20% → 10%) — Iran denied talks; no framework on the table

• Tail risk upgraded (15% → 20%) — Saudi/UAE stepping toward war; Iran hit UAE gas field

• Base case extended to 3-9 months — missile asymmetry (Iran >100/month vs US 6-7)

Market Stress Dashboard

2.5/3 active. DXY above 102 = all three fire.

OVX/VIX ~3.3 x. Bonds -$2.5T. Gold worst week in 40+ years. S&P longest losing streak in a year. Equity vol is mispriced.

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Signal Scorecard — Week in Review