Weekly Signal Playbook · May 28, 2026
Hormuz is still stuck. The S&P printed a new high and gave it back. The long end stays near 19-year highs. Asia is now spending hard on AI.
I. What changed this week
Change 1. Geopolitics and the dollar
Hormuz. The US hit Iranian targets. Rubio said there’s “good news.” Iran’s state TV leaked a draft deal; the White House called it a “complete fabrication.” Strike, then talk, then strike again. Like we said before, this is not something you fast-forward.
Long-end pressure. The 30-year held near 5.07–5.18% this week, still at multi-year highs. Yardeni told the Fed in public: drop the easing bias or lose control. The 6/16 FOMC is Warsh’s first real test in the chair.
One catalyst alone still can’t break the market. You need two of three to stack up: credit, the Fed, geopolitics.
Change 2. AI capex spreads from the US to Asia
ByteDance is looking at up to $70 billion in AI capex this year. Tencent and Alibaba are also raising AI spend, though at smaller scale. Analysts now say the spending gap between US and Chinese tech giants is “smaller than the headlines suggest, and smaller still on ambition.” Same week: China tightened travel limits on its top private-sector AI talent. A two-way signal that AI is now a sovereignty story.
Change 3. The scarce-resource satellites are already running
The “scarce-resource satellite” bucket we opened last week (PLTR / SATS / ASTS) is paying off early. ASTS is up more than 50% in a single week. Scarce spectrum, assets you can’t copy, a growth path that does not need AI multiples to keep expanding.
