Last week, we said a break below $79.4K would bring $77.5K and the short-term holder cost back into focus. Since our last note, BTC has tested that area twice.
The first test came after the Binance hack, heavy withdrawals from the exchange, and steady ETF outflows. BTC fell to the $75.6K area and bounced. After the election, it got back above $80K. Then US stocks crashed. On Thursday, the Nasdaq fell 5.5% and the S&P 500 lost 4.4%. It was the Nasdaq's worst day in 19 months. BTC fell with them, back to the same $75.6K support. It slipped under for a short time on Friday but did not stay there. It is still holding. The support is strong, the next one is 74k.
This fits what we have said before. In past cycles, a sharp drop in US stocks often came right before a crypto bull market. This week, crypto held up better than many of the AI stocks that sold off, and the support held through all of it. We were very happy to see that.
The mood in the market is gloomy now. Price is not falling with it. When people are this scared and price still holds, that gap is often where bottoms form. We still think this is the early part of a bull market.
What Changed
Crypto. It was a heavy week. Binance put the impact of the hack at around $6.3 billion. It froze withdrawals, then reopened them on November 1 and says it has covered about 95% of the stolen assets with its own money. When the news hit, we said there was no need to panic. Looking back, it was one more fear piled on top of the others.
Then came Thursday. As US stocks fell, about $1 billion of leveraged crypto bets were wiped out. Spot BTC ETFs lost about $430 million that day, and not one of the 12 funds had inflows. Over four trading days, ETFs lost about $870 million, and their net flow for 2026 is back below zero. The Fear & Greed Index fell to 28.
Here is what matters to us. After all of that, BTC is still near $76K, right around the short-term holder cost of about $76.5K. Leverage got flushed out again, so the market is cleaner than it was a week ago. Sellers had every reason to push lower, and they could not break the support. That tells us real buyers are waiting here.
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