Last week, we said the BTC range was not done, that $76–77K was the first important area on the downside, and that a break there could move quickly through $74–75K.
$76.5K broke and the price dipped just below $75K, but the fast move through never came. Spot buyers stepped in, and BTC was back above $76K. It has now held the $75K area three times in two days.
That is why we told our followers in the Substack chat yesterday that they could start building a long position.
Our view has not changed. We are still bullish. The range is still the range.
What Changed
The Fed. The Fed raised rates by 25bp, as expected. The dot plot points to one more hike this year, and Warsh made it clear that inflation is still the priority. None of this was a surprise, but it confirms that rates will stay high for longer. The next event to watch is the Bank of Japan on Friday. A hike is fully priced. The risk is the guidance. A hawkish tone and a sharp move in the yen could hit risk assets for a few days. We remain constructive. We are still taking a bit less short-term risk than usual until rates settle.
AI. On Monday, several AI lab leaders called for a slower pace of frontier model development. Chip stocks sold off hard on the headline. We do not think anything changed in the underlying demand. Most of the move looked like positioning, not a change in the numbers.
Crypto. The CLARITY Act failed in the Senate. We treated this as the base case, but the market still reacted, and US spot selling picked up. This pushed BTC below $76.5K and into the support we flagged last week. Selling was heavy into the Fed decision, but it ran into real spot demand on Binance at $75K. We did not see the fast move through $74–75K. The resilience gives it a higher chance of breaking above the top of the range. Three negative headlines in one week. BTC is roughly where it started. This is bullish.
