I agree that the dollar is the United States’ most powerful weapon. Its strength comes not just from being the reserve currency, but from America’s ability to use the dollar system, sanctions, freezes, and payment infrastructure as tools of pressure and control. What we are seeing with Russia and China is not a conventional war, but a financial war centered on the power and weaponization of the dollar.
Strong framework here — especially the "fear is fast, trust is slow" distinction. That lens explains why DXY can stay firm while reserve behavior quietly shifts underneath it.
The part that hit me most was your point that de-dollarization doesn’t need a single winner; it can happen through gradual dilution across rails, reserves, and settlement choices. Curious to see your next piece on how to translate that into actionable positioning.
How ironic. America, which should be the most democratic nation, has been the most demanding dictator.
And by punishing its foes, let go what made it strong.
Meanwhile for cryptos, yes logic validates, but timing is everything.
Thank you Garrett, what a wonderful piece of writing.
I agree that the dollar is the United States’ most powerful weapon. Its strength comes not just from being the reserve currency, but from America’s ability to use the dollar system, sanctions, freezes, and payment infrastructure as tools of pressure and control. What we are seeing with Russia and China is not a conventional war, but a financial war centered on the power and weaponization of the dollar.
Strong framework here — especially the "fear is fast, trust is slow" distinction. That lens explains why DXY can stay firm while reserve behavior quietly shifts underneath it.
The part that hit me most was your point that de-dollarization doesn’t need a single winner; it can happen through gradual dilution across rails, reserves, and settlement choices. Curious to see your next piece on how to translate that into actionable positioning.